Bayesian updating to estimate extinction from sequential observation data

Sequential Updating Conditional Probability in Bayesian Networks by Posterior Probability

The Bayesian network is a powerful knowledge representation formalism; it is also capable of improving its precision through experience. Spiegelhalter et al. [1989] proposed a procedure for sequential updating forward conditional probabilities (FCP) in Bayesian networks of diameter 1 with a single parent node. The procedure assumes certainty for each diagnosis which is not practical for many ap...

Bayesian orientation estimate from single molecule x-ray scattering data

A programming method to estimate proximate parameters of coal beds from well-logging data using a sequential solving of linear equation systems

This paper presents an innovative solution for estimating the proximate parameters of coal beds from the well-logs. To implement the solution, the C# programming language was used. The data from four exploratory boreholes was used in a case study to express the method and determine its accuracy. Then two boreholes were selected as the reference, namely the boreholes with available well-logging ...

Updating Martin’s global extinction model

Australia has been cited as a weak link in anthropogenic models of megafauna extinction, but recent work suggests instead that the evidence for rapid extinction shortly after human arrival is robust. The global model is revisited, based on the contention that late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions took place rapidly on islands, and some islands (such as Australia and the Americas) are much larg...

Bayesian Prediction of future observation based on doubly censored data under exponential distribution

In many experiments about lifetime examination, we will faced on restrictions of time and sample size, which this factors cause that the researcher can’t access to all of data. Therefore, it is valuable to study prediction of unobserved values based on information of available data. in this paper we have studied the prediction of unobserved values in two status of one-sample and two-sample, whe...